News reports from the conference

Slowing rate of retirement increases ophthalmology numbers

A significant reduction in the rate at which older ophthalmologists are retiring, coupled with a reduction in the number of these specialists leaving to practise in the United States means there are more ophthalmologists currently practising in Canada than was previously anticipated.

However, Canadian Ophthalmological Society past-president Dr. Lorne Bellan told residents attending this year's annual meeting of the Society that there will still be a significant increase in the demand for ophthalmologists in the future due to the aging population.

"I think the prospects are good for all of you," he told the audience.

Bellan discussed projections for the ophthalmologic workforce from now to 2030 in the light of an exhaustive analysis conducted five years ago and a re-evaluation of those projections conducted last year.

Based on work done by Bellan in conjunction with the Canadian Medical Association in 2006, it was projected that the number of ophthalmologists would remain relatively static with a slight reduction - from 1100 to 1092 - expected by 2011. In addition, he said it was felt the ratio of full-time ophthalmologists to population would also remain stable.

However, he said, a new analysis conducted last year has shown that there are more ophthalmologists practising than was anticipated.

Bellan said the reason for this change can be attributed to a reduction in the rate at which ophthalmologists are retiring coupled with a noticeable reduction in the number of ophthalmologists moving to the United States.

Prior to 2006, he said, 18-24 ophthalmologists were retiring annually, but now this figure has dropped to 11-17. Bellan said that it is not yet known whether this is a trend, or a "blip" caused by the recent financial crisis and the sense that some people had that they could not afford to retire.

In addition, he said, the number of ophthalmologists moving to the United States has dropped from 11 to four annually. This is likely due to the economic downturn in the United States and the fact the practice environment is not as attractive for ophthalmologists.

On the other side of the equation, he said, a projected increase in the number of ophthalmology residency slots as a result of the general increase in admissions to medical school is not happening. Bellan said most heads of ophthalmology residency programs are not projecting that much of a change in the near future.

What will significantly affect demand ophthalmologists, he said, will be the dramatic increase in the number of people aged 65 years and older. He noted that this is the target population for ophthalmologists because the majority of eye patients have age-related conditions such as glaucoma or age-related macular degeneration.

He said that while the 2006 projections had estimated a 60% drop in the ratio of full-time equivalent ophthalmologists to population by 2020, the 2010 projections show the same effect, but is not taking place as quickly.

Bellan said that the picture is unclear when it comes to making projections about the numbers of ophthalmology subspecialists currently practising and projected needs, Many ophthalmology subspecialty groups are unable to tell exactly how many physicians are working in their field, he said, or what the need will be in the future.

Bellan said the same is true of attempts to calculate the total number of ophthalmologists practising in Canada. Despite accessing multiple sources such as Statistics Canada, provincial governments and registries, best estimates place the current number at 1150, but this is by no means a firm number.

Bellan also touched on a survey of Canadian ophthalmology graduates that he conducted over the past five years that showed that virtually all were working full-time and able to obtain operating room time. He noted that this is in stark contrast to some other specialties such as orthopedics where many graduates have difficulty finding work in their field.